Hugh Miller

• BSc Hons (Advanced Mathematics), Sydney University, 2005
• Doctor of Philosophy (Statistics), University of Melbourne, 2010
• Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, 2013
• Member of the Australian Evaluation Society since 2020

Most of these relate to my time as a PhD student with the late (and great) Peter Hall. My full thesis is also available online.

1. Hall, P., & Miller, H. (2009). Using generalized correlation to effect variable selection in very high dimensional problems. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 18(3), 533–550.PDF
2. Hall, P., & Miller, H. (2009). Using the bootstrap to quantify the authority of an empirical ranking. The Annals of Statistics, 3929–3959.PDF
3. Miller, H., Clarke, S., Lane, S., Lonie, A., Lazaridis, D., Petrovski, S., & Jones, O. (2009). Predicting customer behaviour: The University of Melbourne's KDD Cup report. JMLR: Workshop and Conference Proceedings, 7, 45–55.PDF
4. Hall, P., & Miller, H. (2010). Bootstrap confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for extrema of parameters. Biometrika, 97(4), 881–892.PDF
5. Hall, P., & Miller, H. (2010). Modeling the variability of rankings. The Annals of Statistics, 2652–2677.PDF
6. Miller, H., & Hall, P. (2010). Local polynomial regression and variable selection. Borrowing Strength: Theory Powering Applications — A Festschrift for Lawrence D. Brown, 216–233.PDF
7. Hall, P., & Miller, H. (2010). Sequential, bottom-up variable selection for high-dimensional classification. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 52, 403–421.PDF
8. Hall, P., & Miller, H. (2011). Determining and depicting relationships among components in high-dimensional variable selection. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 20(4), 988–1006.PDF
9. Hall, P., Jin, J., & Miller, H. (2014). Feature selection when there are many influential features. Bernoulli, 1647–1671.PDF
10. Shazadi, K., Petrovski, S., Roten, A., Miller, H., Huggins, R. M., Brodie, M. J., … & Sills, G. J. (2014). Validation of a multigenic model to predict seizure control in newly treated epilepsy. Epilepsy Research, 108(10), 1797–1805.PDF

1. Miller, H. (2010). Towards a better inflation forecast. 17th General Insurance Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
2. Miller, H. (2010). The rise and rise of hybrid modelling. 17th General Insurance Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
3. Mulquiney, P., & Miller, H. (2014). A topic of interest — how to extrapolate the yield curve in Australia. The Australian Journal of Actuarial Practice, 1, 13–28.PDF
4. Mulquiney, P., Riley, B., Miller, H., & Jeffrey, T. (2018). Discount rates in general insurance pricing. 2018 General Insurance Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
5. Miller, H. (2015). A discussion on credibility and penalised regression, with implications for actuarial work. 2015 ASTIN, AFIR/ERM and IACA Colloquia, Actuaries Institute.PDF
6. Miller, H. (2016). The rise and fall of inflation indices. 2016 General Insurance Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
7. Evans, A., & Miller, H. (2017). Challenge · Inflation · Opportunity. 2017 Injury & Disability Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
8. Miller, H. (2017). Building better PPAC models. 2017 Injury & Disability Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
9. Miller, H., & Yip, T. (2017). An approach to setting inflation and discount rates. Australian Journal of Actuarial Practice, 5, 133–138.PDF
10. Miller, H., & Moulder, T. (2018). The missing link: squeezing extra performance out of predictive models. 2018 General Insurance Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
11. Miller, H. (2019). Performance enhancing: a look at modern operational performance rating models. 2019 Injury and Disability Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
12. Miller, H., & Cardinio, G. (2019). Waging war: a new wage inflation forecast model. 2019 Injury and Disability Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
13. Dolman, C., & Miller, H. (2020). All your data are belong to us — trends in data ownership. 20/20 All-Actuaries Virtual Summit, Actuaries Institute.PDF
14. McGuire, G., Taylor, G., & Miller, H. (2021). Self-assembling insurance claim models using regularized regression and machine learning. Variance, 14(1).PDF
15. Miller, H. (2021). Lost cause: getting at causation in our datasets. 2021 Injury and Disability Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
16. Miller, H., & Lyons, I. (2021). Grasping at the invisible — Bayesian models for estimating latent economic variables. 2021 All-Actuaries Virtual Summit.PDF
17. Dolman, C., & Miller, H. (2023). The good, the bad and the ugly of data democratisation — lessons from a data-rich pandemic.PDF
18. Miller, H. (2023). Call in the reserves: how actuarial thought is being deployed across the social sector. 2023 International Congress of Actuaries.PDF
19. Miller, H., & Moulder, T. (2024). Optimal illusion — a look at the practical limitations of price optimisation. 2024 All-Actuaries Summit.PDF
20. Dixie, L., & Miller, H. (2025). The long(itudinal) road to recovery — using survey data to understand broader outcomes and vulnerabilities of injured workers. 2025 Injury and Disability Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
21. Miller, H., Sik Kwok Wong, J., & Sleigh, C. (2025). Yes we GAN: adapting generative models for predictive modelling with multivariate response. 2025 All-Actuaries Summit, Actuaries Institute.PDF
22. Miller, H., Sik Kwok Wong, J., & Sleigh, C. (2026). Making all the right noise — using diffusion deep learning models to perform multivariate prediction for simulation and reserving. 2026 All-Actuaries Summit, Actuaries Institute.PDF

1. Miller, H. (2014). Comparing software options for actuaries. 2014 General Insurance Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
2. Miller, H. (2015). An investment approach to reducing long term cost – lessons from welfare. 2015 Injury Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
3. Miller, H. (2016). A discussion on actuarial software and tools. 2016 GI Glimpse, Actuaries Institute.PDF
4. Miller, H. (2017). The future of prediction. 2017 Injury & Disability Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
5. Miller, H. (2018). Working in the Social Sector. 2018 Young Actuaries Conference, Actuaries Institute.PDF
6. Miller, H., & Dixie, L. (2019). Made to measure: Wellbeing frameworks, linked data and person-centred outcomes. 2019 Injury & Disability Schemes Seminar, Actuaries Institute.PDF
7. Miller, H. (2020). The conflict of (low) interest. 20/20 All-Actuaries Virtual Summit, Actuaries Institute.PDF
8. Miller, H. (2022). Micro-management: Some unsolved problems in microsimulation models. 2022 ANU Actuarial Summer Research Camp.PDF
9. Miller, H. (2022). S is for Social. 2022 Young Actuaries NSW ESG event, Actuaries Institute.PDF
10. Miller, H., & Dixie, L. (2022). Home and Away: Where do homeless people go? 2022 All-Actuaries Summit, Actuaries Institute.PDF
11. Miller, H., & Dixie, L. (2025). Making sense of the tsunami: A stocktake of outcomes and supports in the disability sector. 2025 All-Actuaries Summit, Actuaries Institute.PDF

Mostly commissioned reports for government departments and organisations that I contributed a significant part to. Arranged loosely by theme (I've not duplicated entries that belong in two). Sometimes individual authors are identified, other times Taylor Fry.

1. Miller, H., Meyricke, R., & Dixie, L. (2020). Mind the gap: the Australian Actuaries Intergenerational Equity Index. Actuaries Institute.PDF
2. Miller, H., Meyricke, R., & Dixie, L. (2021). A narrow escape? The 2021 Australian Actuaries Intergenerational Equity Index. Actuaries Institute.PDF
3. Miller, H., & Dixie, L. (2023). Not a level playing field — exploring issues of inequality. Actuaries Institute.PDF
4. Dixie, L., & Miller, H. (2023). Not a level playing field — people with disability: exploring the intersection of inequality and disability. Actuaries Institute.PDF
5. Miller, H., & Dixie, L. (2024). Getting to grips with Indigenous data.PDF
6. Miller, H., Dixie, L., & Mehry, S. (2026). Australian Actuaries Intergenerational Equity Index — cracking the unsolved generational equation. Actuaries Institute.PDF
7. Miller, H., Dixie, L., & Mehry, S. (2026). Australian Actuaries Intergenerational Equity Index — spotlight on the Australian tax and transfer system. Actuaries Institute.PDF

1. Vincent, J., McCarthy, D., Miller, H., Armstrong, K., Lacey, S., Lian, G., Qi, D., Richards, N., & Berry, T. (2022). Research report — the economic cost of violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation of people with disability. Taylor Fry.PDF
2. Taylor Fry & the CIE (2023). Costing a transition away from subminimum wages. For the Disability Royal Commission.PDF
3. Taylor Fry & the CIE (2023). Increased funding to meet demand for disability advocacy services. For the Disability Royal Commission.PDF
4. Taylor Fry & the CIE (2023). NDIS Review — costs, benefits and frameworks. For the NDIS Review.PDF

1. Miller, H., & Dixie, L. (2022). 2021 AEDC indicators of development for children with disability. For the Department of Education, Skills and Employment.PDF

1. Taylor Fry (2024). Costs and benefits comparison: social enterprise employment and Disability Employment Services. For White Box Enterprises.PDF
2. Taylor Fry (2024). Modelling of the supported employment population. For National Disability Services & Endeavour Foundation.PDF
3. Taylor Fry (2022). Data-led approach to identifying skills shortages. For the NZ Productivity Commission.PDF

1. Taylor Fry & SVA (2024). Targeted Earlier Intervention Program Evaluation. For the NSW Department of Communities and Justice.PDF
2. Miller, H., & Dixie, L. (2018). Analysis of future service usage for Out-of-Home-Care leavers. For the NSW Office of Social Impact Investment.PDF

1. Taylor Fry & ARTD (2024). Towards Zero Suicides evaluation, covering six initiatives for the NSW Ministry of Health.
   • Safe Havens initiative PDF
   • Suicide Prevention Outreach Teams PDF
   • Zero Suicides in Care initiation PDF
   • Community Gatekeeper Training PDF
   • Suicide Bereavement Support PDF
   • i.am / Youth Aftercare PDF
   • Summary report PDF

1. Miller, H., & Dixie, L. (2021). Pathways to homelessness. For the NSW Department of Communities and Justice.PDF
2. Taylor Fry. Actuarial valuation of the benefit system for working-age adults. For the New Zealand Ministry of Social Development. Some of our early reports are available here.
3. Taylor Fry (2017). Annual report of the public housing system. For the New Zealand Ministry of Social Development.PDF
4. ARTD and Taylor Fry (2023). Future Directions for Social Housing in NSW: Service Improvement Initiatives — Outcomes and Economic Evaluation. For the NSW Department of Communities and Justice.PDFFurther analysis

1. Miller, H. (2018). People, projections and payments: a look at modern government service delivery. Actuaries Institute.PDF
2. Blythe, M., Miller, H., & Isles, D. (2022). The long run: low-probability, high-impact scenarios for the Australian economy and financial markets. Actuaries Institute.PDF

Mostly short pieces for Actuaries Digital, including my Normal Deviance column. Newest first.

20263

• JulShould we be surprised when underdogs win penalty shootouts?
• JulA reflection on outcomes for First Nations peoples
• AprKey trends in quantitative evaluation for Government

20255

• DecIt Was AI Night Before Christmas…
• NovLife Would be Easier if We Did Not Need to Make Predictions
• AugThe (Pricing) Games We Play
• MayPeeking into the Box
• AprOld Dogs, New Tricks

20245

• DecChristmas is a Time for Sharing (Reading Lists and Google Trend Plots)
• OctAre We in a Data Science Gilded Age?
• JulMeasuring Things the Right Way
• MayHow Australia Could Have Won Eurovision
• MarThe Unfortunate Preponderance of Edge Cases

20239

• DecWhat is the Most Christmassy of Christmas Songs?
• DecFinding the Common Threads
• SepThe 2023 Intergenerational Report – The Best One Yet?
• AugBeware the algorithmic feedback loop
• JunSocially responsible insurance in the age of AI
• JunWell, that generative AI thing got real pretty quickly, didn’t it?
• MayActuaries contribute to the work of the Disability Royal Commission
• AprThe long list of things we do not know
• FebDisability Royal Commission releases Taylor Fry’s report on the economic cost of violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation

20226

• DecSo when does the Christmas season really start?
• DecHow to spot an effective data science team
• SepArt at the speed of thought
• JulData for good – Bringing meaningful change to people’s lives
• FebShould we care about the metaverse?
• FebThe pandemic – a big win for primary data collection and dashboarding, a loss for AI

20216

• DecWhat do chess results say about day-to-day variability in my mental performance?
• NovAbstracts 101: How actuaries craft their submissions
• SepWhy you should care about the Intergenerational Report
• AugCan disabled athletes outcompete able-bodied athletes?
• AugOlympic gymnastics – underperformers or statistical quirk?
• JunBeware the data grab

20203

• SepWhen the algorithm fails to make the grade
• AugLaunch of new Green Paper: Mind the Gap – Australian Actuaries Intergenerational Equity Index
• FebBuilding model resilience in data analytics

20198

• NovNormal Deviance – Seeing the forest for the analytics trees
• AugWhy we should all think more carefully about performance models
• AugEthical AI
• MayOn your blocs: Eurovision is coming!
• AprEditor’s Note – Hugh Miller
• MarSome musings on actuarial research
• JanPeople, projections, and payments: modern government service delivery
• JanNormal deviance: My data analytics New Year resolutions

20185

• SepWhen analytics projects go wrong – Normal Deviance
• JulTrust me, I’m a computer model
• MayModern government service delivery – 2018 Public Policy Essay Competition Winner
• MayCareerView Podcast – Managing a Data Analytics Team (with Aaron Cutter)
• MarBooks that made me – Normal deviance

20175

• SepNormal Deviance – A Tale of two CT(O)s
• AugNormal Deviance – Why you should totally include data science in your next job search
• JulNormal Deviance – Burying the GLM
• JunNormal Deviance – In praise of the GLM
• AprNormal Deviance – Getting started in analytics

20151

• JulAirborne – a view of data analytics in Australasia

A few things I've made for fun, with more to follow.

1. Wordsnake — a daily word game about chaining words together.Play
2. A simple map of ABS SEIFA quintiles.Open map
3. An exercise to find potential pharmacy locations, related to this Actuaries Digital article.Open map

Self-indulgent, apologies.